In our part 1 post and its follow-up we covered some price predictions from authorized Canon dealers. As promised, this post covers predictions for unauthorized dealers, deals we expect to see during the Thanksgiving Week eBay Frenzy, or subsequent frenzies rounding out the rest of the year.

Buying a physically identical import model from an unauthorized dealer via eBay is very safe and effective way to save money, as long as you rely on eBay feedback (or, our word!) to direct you to reputable dealers who have a history of reliably selling brand new Canon items at a great price. We’ll write more about why you can trust these dealers in a forthcoming post. (If the idea of buying from an unauthorized dealer still doesn’t appeal to you, consider our authorized dealer street prices.)

One important thing to note is these deals will go fast, really fast, if last year is any indication. For example, eBay’s headline Black Friday deal last year was the 5D Mark III for $2445, which sold out (300 bodies) in 91 minutes. To stand a chance you should sign up for a notification for the specific item, and we’ll e-mail you the second we see a great deal start.

The Predictions

Without further ado here are the unauthorized dealer deals that we predict to see sometime this year (with the biggest chance being during Thanksgiving Week or Cyber Week, on eBay). Again, these are predictions only based on historical data and current industry trends, please take them with a grain of salt.

• EOS 5D Mark III body-only for <$2400 (set notification)
  • What makes us predict this: Two years running, the headline Black Friday Deal was a 5D Mark III and we don’t expect this year to be any different. We saw $2445 last year and based on what we’ve seen with retailers testing the waters below $2500, we think sub-$2400 is definitely feasible on Black Friday.

• EOS 5D Mark III with 24-105mm f/4L IS for $2850, maybe (set notification)
  • What makes us predict this: We were totally shocked to see the 5D Mark III + 24-105mm for $2899 frenzy deal, causing us to dub it the “hottest 5D Mark III deal ever”, coming in $400 below authorized dealers and $180 below Black Friday 2013. The first deal sold out, but subsequent attempts at $2899 have been lackluster, leading us to predict that they’ll have to sweeten the deal. This is likely your best bet, as you can split the kit and sell the 24-105mm. That’s if they offer it at all — the last few attempts at selling this kit on eBay have been so quiet that retailers might not discount it and just split the kits themselves.

• EOS 6D body-only for $1300 (or slightly above) (set notification)
  • What makes us predict this: Recent EOS 6D deals have pegged this body at $1349 (import with WiFi & GPS). A price of $1299 breaks a psychological barrier that is sure to trigger buying, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we reach it during at some point this year.

• EOS 6D with 24-105mm Kit for $1800 (set notification)
• What makes us predict this: This item has been recently seen at $1849. If the body indeed drops to $1300 unauthorized, then $1799 may be in the cards for the kit.

How about other items? Unauthorized dealers have not been traditionally competitive on lenses, and the EOS 70D unauthorized dealer deals have been poor, especially in light of the $799 AR Adorama deal (still live) which is well below unauthorized dealer prices. We think it is also too early to see the 7D Mark II show up at any reasonable discount. But if the past has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen when it comes to Canon pricing. Just set a notification on the specific items you are interested in, and hope to get some great deals in your mailbox…

A few weeks ago, we published Part 1 of our holiday pricing predictions — we wrote down some predictions on authorized dealer pricing over the November/December holiday season. This post takes a look at how accurate we were, and updates some of the predictions to include what we think might be coming in the next and subsequent Canon rebate.

I know many readers are waiting for “Part 2” of our Holiday Predictions series, where we’ll predict some of the unauthorized dealer (eBay) prices for Black Friday and the following Cyber Week. This isn’t it, but don’t worry, that’s coming soon…

In Part 1 we predicted:

• Prediction #1: MAP is here to stay.
• Prediction #2: Small drop in lens prices (because of increased rebates).
• Prediction #3: Steady full-frame body price… for now (except for 1D-X)
• Prediction #4: Street prices will fluctuate directly with Canon rebates.

Well, how did we do with these predictions thus far, and do we have anything to change?

Read on to find out.

Continue reading →

If you are in the New York City area, we’re told that Adorama will be having a Secret Late Night Black Wednesday Sale. It’s in-store only at their 42 W 18th Street location, today only, and starts at 4 PM. They are extending hours today to 10 PM due to this sale. You’ll need this special in-store coupon.

The prices in this sale are “too drastic to print”, but we are told that our readers will not be disappointed! (Any readers who choose to check out the sale, please report on your findings!) Don’t forget to bring your coupon.