CanonPriceWatch’s Holiday Predictions, Part 2: eBay Non-Authorized

In our part 1 post and its follow-up we covered some price predictions from authorized Canon dealers. As promised, this post covers predictions for unauthorized dealers, deals we expect to see during the Thanksgiving Week eBay Frenzy, or subsequent frenzies rounding out the rest of the year.

Buying a physically identical import model from an unauthorized dealer via eBay is very safe and effective way to save money, as long as you rely on eBay feedback (or, our word!) to direct you to reputable dealers who have a history of reliably selling brand new Canon items at a great price. We’ll write more about why you can trust these dealers in a forthcoming post. (If the idea of buying from an unauthorized dealer still doesn’t appeal to you, consider our authorized dealer street prices.)

One important thing to note is these deals will go fast, really fast, if last year is any indication. For example, eBay’s headline Black Friday deal last year was the 5D Mark III for $2445, which sold out (300 bodies) in 91 minutes. To stand a chance you should sign up for a notification for the specific item, and we’ll e-mail you the second we see a great deal start.

The Predictions

Without further ado here are the unauthorized dealer deals that we predict to see sometime this year (with the biggest chance being during Thanksgiving Week or Cyber Week, on eBay). Again, these are predictions only based on historical data and current industry trends, please take them with a grain of salt.

  • EOS 5D Mark III with 24-105mm f/4L IS for $2850, maybe (set notification)
    • What makes us predict this: We were totally shocked to see the 5D Mark III + 24-105mm for $2899 frenzy deal, causing us to dub it the “hottest 5D Mark III deal ever”, coming in $400 below authorized dealers and $180 below Black Friday 2013. The first deal sold out, but subsequent attempts at $2899 have been lackluster, leading us to predict that they’ll have to sweeten the deal. This is likely your best bet, as you can split the kit and sell the 24-105mm. That’s if they offer it at all — the last few attempts at selling this kit on eBay have been so quiet that retailers might not discount it and just split the kits themselves.
  • EOS 6D body-only for $1300 (or slightly above) (set notification)
    • What makes us predict this: Recent EOS 6D deals have pegged this body at $1349 (import with WiFi & GPS). A price of $1299 breaks a psychological barrier that is sure to trigger buying, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we reach it during at some point this year.

How about other items? Unauthorized dealers have not been traditionally competitive on lenses, and the EOS 70D unauthorized dealer deals have been poor, especially in light of the $799 AR Adorama deal (still live) which is well below unauthorized dealer prices. We think it is also too early to see the 7D Mark II show up at any reasonable discount. But if the past has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen when it comes to Canon pricing. Just set a notification on the specific items you are interested in, and hope to get some great deals in your mailbox…



27 comments on “CanonPriceWatch’s Holiday Predictions, Part 2: eBay Non-Authorized

  1. fslfs
    November 17, 2014 at 7:17 am EDT

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/291286787787

    6D 1100 from HK, but sold out

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 17, 2014 at 9:04 am EDT

      Shipping direct from HK has always been cheaper than buying from US based unauthorized dealers, by about 5-7% or so.

      This one in particulars has only 167 feedback and it’s mostly for cheaper camera gear, their selling price is probably appropriate for their risk level.

  2. November 17, 2014 at 7:35 am EDT

    I’m surprised that the 6D won’t be lower. Seems like last Black Friday people were getting them for $1400. I would have thought that the Nikon price drops would have put some pressure on Canon.

    Oh well.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 17, 2014 at 9:14 am EDT

      Yes, the eBay door buster last Black Friday was $1400.

      This year, there’s been a big increase in cost for unauthorized dealers though. Last year, unauthorized dealers were reselling USA based bodies (remember, “US Model from an Unauthorized Dealer”)?

      This year, thanks to Canon’s Enforcement as well as the use of a consumer-only mail-in rebate, that door is closed. Unauthorized dealers are now importing the bodies, which adds significantly to the cost to procure, ship, and reship the bodies.

      That being said it’s still possible for this to be $1250 if the currency continues to move, lots of variables in play.

  3. jonathan
    November 17, 2014 at 7:47 am EDT

    Unless I missed something the adorama deal has not been live for a couple weeks now. Price for the bundle with printer is now $1,149.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 17, 2014 at 9:16 am EDT

      It is still active.

      It shows $1149, but this is the before rebate price, and it sneakily omits any reference to the rebate. It is still eligible for the $350 mail-in rebate (printer paper camera) which puts your final price at $799.

      1. jonathan
        November 17, 2014 at 10:27 am EDT

        I saw this deal posted and it said it ended the beginning of the month..the 7th or something. Right away on the 10th I emailed 2 different sales people from adorama asking about it and if I could still get the deal. They said they no longer are offering it. Can you show me where it would say? If the cart price shows 1,149 no one would get that and hope for a rebate unless it mentions it

        1. CanonPriceWatch
          November 17, 2014 at 10:34 am EDT

          Unfortunately, the average Adorama CS rep isn’t in tune with all the rebates and promotions, their expiry dates, and eligibilities. (Countless times readers have contacted me saying “But Adorama said this…”)

          Here’s the link to the deal:
          http://www.canonpricewatch.com/go/Bundle/b=41116

          Here is the rebate info, off of Canon’s site:
          http://www.usa.canon.com/CUSA/assets/app/pdf/Promotions/camera/EOS_EF-Lenses_PIXMA_AmericanExpress_Reward_Card_102614-112214.pdf

          Canon simply renewed the rebate from the previous rebate period, and Adorama doesn’t seem to have updated their site. This happens more often than you would think.

          Page 4 of the rebate form shows a $350 rebate on a purchase of PIXMA PRO-100, EOS 70D, and paper, as long as you’re purchasing from an authorized dealer (which Adorama is), and before November 22nd.

          One reader noted that they needed to bug Adorama to make the receipt itemized showing a separate line for each item in the bundle, but I don’t know if this has been fixed on Adorama’s site yet.

      2. jonathan
        November 17, 2014 at 12:59 pm EDT

        I was thinking of emailing adorama with the Canon rebate PDF just to make sure there will be no issues. I was waiting for black Friday but I think this is the best price I will find. I just hope they don’t say that they “were” participating but their deal ended.

        1. CanonPriceWatch
          November 17, 2014 at 1:18 pm EDT

          They are participating, they are listed on the Canon USA rebate site.

  4. jonathan
    November 17, 2014 at 10:57 am EDT

    Thank you!!!! I appreciate you getting back to me so quick. I am going to try later tonight or tomorrow to make the purchase. What exactly did they have to bug them about? I just want to have all the details so I can get the rebate. Funny thing is I did find that rebate info on the canon site but thought adorama would know best lol

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 17, 2014 at 3:36 pm EDT

      The Canon rebate form requires that if purchasing items eligible for a bundle rebate (e.g. printer + paper + camera), each of the items in the bundle must be a separate line and have its own price.

      One reader reported their invoice had a single entry for the bundle, which got rejected by Canon. Apparently it was easy to follow up with Adorama to get a more detailed invoice, Canon approved it, and the reader has since received the rebate.

  5. jonathan
    November 17, 2014 at 10:59 am EDT

    It does say from a “participating” dealer though..hope that doesn’t cause an issue

  6. November 17, 2014 at 12:38 pm EDT

    Samantha Costlow Bayura

  7. November 17, 2014 at 4:50 pm EDT

    Canon price watch is there a nikon equivalent website that actually updates their site?

    1. November 17, 2014 at 10:56 pm EDT

      Sadly, Nikon pricing is extremely boring, with Nikon’s unilateral pricing policy, every store has the same price… for the entire year… watching Nikon prices is like watching paint dry.

  8. s
    November 18, 2014 at 11:31 am EDT

    why do people put other peoples names on here?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 18, 2014 at 11:34 am EDT

      Some comments are sync’ed from Facebook, where people notify their friends of a post by commenting with their friend’s name. (It’s a silly habit, people should use the share button…)

      1. S
        November 18, 2014 at 5:19 pm EDT

        Rob Lowe, Justin Timberlake, Katy Perry.
        just kidding 🙂 really appreciate all your hard work

  9. November 18, 2014 at 8:19 pm EDT

    as soon as <2400. Harpreet Singh Badal Pallavi Singh

    1. November 18, 2014 at 10:25 pm EDT

      Go for it dear

  10. James
    November 18, 2014 at 8:35 pm EDT

    At this time, I own canon APS-C cameras and several lens, and I am planing to upgrade to full frame camera this holiday. At the beginning I want to get 5D3 or 6D, but the announcement of Nikon D810, especially D750 changed my opinion. I will wait till Dec to see what will happen, if canon still refuse to drop the price of 5D3 or 6D significantly, definitely I will choose Nikon D750, which has Similar function, better CMOS, and lower price. and sell all my canon gears at low price. It is really unwise for canon to keep the price of 5D3/6D steady at this time.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 18, 2014 at 9:27 pm EDT

      As per our predictions, we expect to see about $100 drop on 6D and 5D3 from both authorized dealers and unauthorized dealers.

  11. November 18, 2014 at 11:46 pm EDT

    Hmmmm

  12. November 19, 2014 at 6:49 am EDT

    7 more days to go…

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