CanonPriceWatch’s Holiday Predictions, Follow Up to Part 1

A few weeks ago, we published Part 1 of our holiday pricing predictions — we wrote down some predictions on authorized dealer pricing over the November/December holiday season. This post takes a look at how accurate we were, and updates some of the predictions to include what we think might be coming in the next and subsequent Canon rebate.

I know many readers are waiting for “Part 2” of our Holiday Predictions series, where we’ll predict some of the unauthorized dealer (eBay) prices for Black Friday and the following Cyber Week. This isn’t it, but don’t worry, that’s coming soon…

In Part 1 we predicted:

  • Prediction #1: MAP is here to stay.
  • Prediction #2: Small drop in lens prices (because of increased rebates).
  • Prediction #3: Steady full-frame body price… for now (except for 1D-X)
  • Prediction #4: Street prices will fluctuate directly with Canon rebates.

Well, how did we do with these predictions thus far, and do we have anything to change?

Read on to find out.

  • Result #1: MAP hasn’t been broken yet.

    We still haven’t seen any easing up of Canon’s Minimum Advertised Price policy over the last few weeks, nor do we expect to see an easing of this strict policy any time soon. Like it or not, the MAP is here to stay. We are asked many times: no, we do not expect to see lower (pre-rebate) advertised prices at authorized dealers on Thanksgiving Week or the following Cyber Week. We expect possibly some rebate changes (see below).

  • Result #2: We already saw a small increased rebate on lenses!

    Shortly after our prediction post we saw an increase in lens rebates — both the dollar amounts and the number of lenses on rebate were increased. On average, lens rebates were increased about $50. We also saw a new rebate on the new 16-35mm f/4L IS (street price of $1049 AR), as we had hoped!

    If you’re hoping for yet another rebate increase, we think that’s unlikely, as between the recent price drop and the current rebates, the discount provided by Canon matches or exceeds last year’s amount. We think lens rebate values will stay steady in the upcoming rebates (but this is just our prediction).

  • Result #3: Body rebates stayed steady, a huge 1D-X rebate was introduced.

    At the time, we didn’t expect any major short-term changes in the $200 mail-in rebate on 5D Mark III and EOS 6D, and true to our prediction Canon renewed the rebate at the same value for another month. But since then we’ve seen some competitive pressure with Nikon cutting full-frame pricing by $100. I wouldn’t be surprised if Canon matches this in the next rebate.

    We also saw a huge $800 rebate on the EOS-1D X, which matches our prediction of an adjustment of price on the 1D X. We have a street price of $5299 AR, which is much more competitive with the import models we occasionally see on eBay for $4799.

    We also had predicted a street price on the EOS 7D Mark II. It hasn’t happened yet, but we’re still hopeful we’ll see this before the end of the November.

  • Result #4: Street prices are still fluctuating directly with Canon rebates.

    Our street prices are from very reputable authorized Canon dealers, so you are eligible for all Canon mail-in rebates. Our after-rebate street prices will drop if the mail-in rebates increase. We don’t expect the pre-rebate price (the price that you pay to the store) to change significantly, over the coming months. Any price changes from now until the end of the year are likely directly resulting from Canon mail-in rebates or instant rebates.

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51 comments on “CanonPriceWatch’s Holiday Predictions, Follow Up to Part 1

  1. jwu
    November 12, 2014 at 4:31 pm EST

    Do you expect the rebate period will be extended?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 12, 2014 at 4:33 pm EST

      Mail-in rebates are not simply “extended”, but they are replaced with a new set of mail-in rebates with new begin and end dates.

      I expect a new set of mail-in rebates to begin with the same values on most* lenses and same or possibly increased value on bodies.

      * most, because Canon always finds a way to monkey with things slightly, some things will go up and some things will go down.

      1. James Jenkins
        November 12, 2014 at 8:38 pm EST

        What do you think the 6d will do after Nov 22 rebate of $ 200. Thanks

        1. Joe
          November 12, 2014 at 10:45 pm EST

          Curious about this one as well. Hopefully Nikon’s pricing and competitive cameras will mean just a little bit more off on Canon’s full frame bodies. I’m certainly not holding my breath, but I’d love for the 6D + 24-105 kit to drop below that $2000 psychological barrier. Come on, Canon. Just a little more and you have me!

        2. CanonPriceWatch
          November 13, 2014 at 4:22 am EST

          As mentioned in the post, “But since then we’ve seen some competitive pressure with Nikon cutting full-frame pricing by $100. I wouldn’t be surprised if Canon matches this in the next rebate.”

          That would put the street price 6D + 24-105mm kit at $1939, if it does happen.

      2. m m
        November 14, 2014 at 1:04 pm EST

        What about printers? I’m looking at a pixma pro 1

        1. CanonPriceWatch
          November 14, 2014 at 1:05 pm EST

          Should have bought that a couple weeks ago during the PhotoPlus Expo sales.

        2. CanonPriceWatch
          November 16, 2014 at 3:45 am EST

          … but you might get a second chance at pretty much the same price (it was $399 AR) in the future. Maybe Black Friday / Cyber Week.

  2. Kevin
    November 12, 2014 at 4:51 pm EST

    Any guess on the 600 ex rt flash?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 12, 2014 at 5:05 pm EST

      The 600EX-RT currently has a $50 IR, which matches last year’s value. Any difference in price between last year and this is due to MAP. Maybe a small bump in IR ($30? $50?) from Canon is possible, but I’d put it as unlikely.

      Refurb is your best route for 600EX-RT ($373 refurb in a 15% off sale).

  3. Martin
    November 12, 2014 at 5:08 pm EST

    Related to point #4, what do you see happening with Sigma street prices? I know you just started the Street Price program for them. I’m thinking about getting the Art 50mm 1.4.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 13, 2014 at 4:24 am EST

      It’s hard to say as Sigma pricing for Art lenses is new to Sigma too 🙂 No idea what they plan on doing. I never really paid attention to Sigma lenses/prices too closely before Art, to be honest…

  4. November 12, 2014 at 5:28 pm EST

    I really can’t stand the way Canon offers their rebates in the form of American Express gift cards…so they can further track my spending. I would rather get a check, or at least have the choice between the two.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 12, 2014 at 5:34 pm EST

      It’s a little known fact that you can refund the AMEX card balance, in full, to a check. No fees. Call and ask for a “refund”.

      1. November 13, 2014 at 1:19 pm EST

        Ah, thanks for the tip. Knowledge is power!

    2. Alfred
      November 12, 2014 at 5:38 pm EST

      You can call them and have them direct deposit the funds to your bank account. This is described in some of the prior rebate posts.

  5. Mike
    November 12, 2014 at 5:36 pm EST

    Interested in investing in a 400mm 2.8 IS II. Since Canon just recently reduced the prices of all the super telephotos, any point in waiting or shall I just dive head first? lol Thanks!

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 12, 2014 at 5:37 pm EST

      I doubt we’ll see any rebate or further price reduction on super telephotos, so the current street price is probably where it’s at.

  6. Andrew
    November 12, 2014 at 6:19 pm EST

    So if I just bought a lens Saturday, do I get the new rebate if I send it in after the new start or do I have to use the current rebate?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 13, 2014 at 4:28 am EST

      Provided you haven’t already cut the UPC from the box and mailed it to Canon, most retailers can help process a return and re-purchase to adjust your rebate eligibility.

      That being said, we don’t expect lens rebates to increase further from this point (except on perhaps a few specific items).

  7. Fujimoto
    November 12, 2014 at 8:11 pm EST

    Do you have any street prices for Nikon cameras, through your dealers?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 12, 2014 at 8:40 pm EST

      Unfortunately, no. Nikon has a much stricter pricing policy than Canon. (Can you believe it?)

      1. November 13, 2014 at 12:07 am EST

        Not untill I recommended your sister website npw to my friend,Nikon user obvious. Npw is really quiet and has much less fun than here.

  8. Deepak
    November 12, 2014 at 9:32 pm EST

    Do you see any price change for Tamron 70-200 2.8 new lens?

    1. KO
      November 12, 2014 at 9:53 pm EST

      Good question. I have this lens on my shopping list too…

      1. CanonPriceWatch
        November 16, 2014 at 3:43 am EST

        I really don’t have enough datapoints on Tamron to be able to say anything concrete. Other than the few sales of “demo” units by Cameraland via eBay, the price on this one has been really steady.

  9. Ryan
    November 13, 2014 at 3:29 am EST

    Im waiting to see if there are winter discounts on the 6D, sigma art lenses or canon 24-70 f4. What do you think?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 13, 2014 at 4:29 am EST

      See the post for a prediction on the EOS 6D price: “But since then we’ve seen some competitive pressure with Nikon cutting full-frame pricing by $100. I wouldn’t be surprised if Canon matches this in the next rebate.”

      If they do increase the rebate and continue offering the $250 rebate on a 6D + 24-70mm f/4L IS combo, that will be amazing!

  10. November 13, 2014 at 8:30 am EST

    anyone think the Canon EF 70-200mm f2.8L IS USM II will see a price drop from the current rebates?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 13, 2014 at 12:07 pm EST

      95% certain that the rebate will not increase from $150 this year. Our street price is currently $1899 AR ($2049 before rebate).

  11. S
    November 13, 2014 at 9:14 am EST

    Do you think discounts are based on supply/demand? If they sold enough previously discounted items, then this shopping season the supply would be low enough to not increase rebates? that being said, do you ever see discounts or rebates on battery grips like the BG-E13 ?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 13, 2014 at 12:06 pm EST

      Most definitely. Canon meets their sales targets when they sell items (in volume) to retailers. Retailers won’t order more if they still have inventory. Like most manufacturers, Canon likely polls retailers to see what they have in-stock and not selling, and gives end-consumer discounts (via mail-in or instant rebates or sell-throughs) to encourage retailer’s inventory to be sold, and encourage the retailer to order more of a certain item.

      The other mechanism they use is offering specials or discounts to retailers on certain items at certain times, the retailer can then (if they choose to) pass the discount on to you.

      We rarely see discounts and never rebates on battery grips or batteries.

  12. MBF
    November 13, 2014 at 12:12 pm EST

    What precisely do you think about continued or additional incentive on the 1dx? Thanks

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 13, 2014 at 1:06 pm EST

      Continued, likely yes, our guess is through the end of the year.

      Additional rebate, our guess is it’s unlikely. Two reasons why we believe that: the US street price is now about 8% above the import lowest price (a good proxy for the true Canon int’l cost) which seems to be consistent with the pricing for the 5D Mark III and 6D. Second, they go to great strides to not “devalue” their high end product. Look at how many years it took them to discount the 1D-X. They’re not going to do it a second time. They would have done it all at once. They would also rather discontinue it than to see the new retail price slide, as it needs to keep its price to prop up the price of its successor.

  13. Seán
    November 15, 2014 at 10:24 am EST

    I have the 24-70mm 2.8 II on my wish list, when do you see the best time to buy?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 16, 2014 at 3:40 am EST

      Any time, our prediction is the rebate isn’t changing after November 22nd, but if you want to be absolutely sure, you can wait until November 23rd.

  14. Roland
    November 15, 2014 at 11:12 pm EST

    How does the mail-in rebate restriction of 1 copy per item per household work exactly? Does that restriction only apply to a given rebate program or across all rebate programs? For instance, if I used the mail-in rebate program from last year to purchase a 5D III, could I still use the mail-in rebate program from this year to purchase another 5D III?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 15, 2014 at 11:16 pm EST

      Each rebate period is independent. You could buy a 5D Mark III this month, then buy another next month when the new rebate is issued. Just don’t buy two in the same month.

      I’d also think that if you were to buy 10 a year, you might raise some warning flags, but normal consumer behavior is probably fine.

      1. Roland
        November 15, 2014 at 11:32 pm EST

        Thanks that sounds great!

        The only thing better I guess would be instant rebates instead of mail-in ones, so that one wouldn’t need to go through all the hassle.

  15. Ian
    November 16, 2014 at 12:05 pm EST

    Pretty much saying there won’t be any real sale during Black Friday for Canon gear. Disappointed.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 16, 2014 at 2:18 pm EST

      That is historically true, unless you are considering unauthorized dealers via eBay.

      1. Nope
        November 16, 2014 at 2:45 pm EST

        I am definitely considering unauthorized. Do you think we’ll see sub 1,800 6d’s with kit lens? That’d be an instant trigger pull for me at least… Only chance to not pay tax here in NY. With paypal credit via ebay it adds comfort – if the gray market retailer doesn’t make good on a warranty claim, I won’t make good on the payments and let paypal sort it out… With THEIR dough.

        1. CanonPriceWatch
          November 16, 2014 at 2:50 pm EST

          I think $1850 is probably reasonable with $1800 possible. I’m really doubting $1800 though, because the store can make more selling the body for $1250-$1300 and the lens for $625-650.

          Anyway, to be covered in my Part 2 prediction post…

  16. November 16, 2014 at 2:44 pm EST

    In the market for a 6D + 24-105, and wondering if I should go for it now or wait 2-3 weeks for the holiday deals to kick in.

    Is there a good chance that the $200 MIR is extended and/or the street price becomes lower due to a MAP violation or canon price reduction?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 16, 2014 at 2:47 pm EST

      As stated in the post, “But since then we’ve seen some competitive pressure with Nikon cutting full-frame pricing by $100. I wouldn’t be surprised if Canon matches this in the next rebate.”

      So I think there’s a solid chance the rebate will be extended AND increased.

      As for MAP violations — unlikely. Canon price reduction — unlikely.

    2. CanonPriceWatch
      November 16, 2014 at 2:48 pm EST

      Oh, and next rebate is Nov 23rd, probably no need to wait more than that.

  17. Victor
    November 21, 2014 at 8:30 am EST

    There is anyway to know if rebate 1DX continues after 22nd?

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 22, 2014 at 5:31 am EST

      The rebate should be renewed at the same amount.

  18. Harshal
    November 21, 2014 at 11:47 pm EST

    Do you see any price cut or rebate increase on Canon 70D with 18-55 stm and 55-250 stm bundle after 23rd Nov.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      November 22, 2014 at 5:31 am EST

      We’re not expecting any change.

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