We’ve been told that Canon will be starting their final rebate of the season on Sunday, November 23rd. The rebate will end in January, 2015, so this will be the last rebate of 2014, with no more rebate changes coming this year. Comparing these new rebates with the existing current rebates shows the following:

• No changes to existing lens rebate values.
• $100 rebate increase (now $300) for 5D Mark III
• $100 rebate increase (now $300) for 6D
• $100 rebate increase (now $300) for 5D Mark III + 24-105mm f/4L IS
• $100 rebate increase (now $300) for 6D + 24-105mm f/4L IS
• A few lenses (notably 24-70mm f/4L IS and 100L Macro) now have a small rebate.

UPDATE: The rebate form has now been accidentally leaked by a certain dealer.

As we said after the last rebate, we didn’t expect a further increase in the lens rebate this year, but we thought that Canon might increase the body rebate slightly. And this happened! As this rebate ends in 2015, there are no opportunities for further rebate increases. This also means that our current authorized dealer street prices on lenses (and newly reduced body street prices due to the increased rebate) are likely the lowest authorized dealer street prices of the year. (We can never rule out retailers changing the pre-rebate street prices, but since prices are already so low, any movements are likely very small.)

• EOS 5D Mark III for $2599 AR Street Price (vs. $3099 AR MAP)
• EOS 6D for $1339 AR Street Price (vs. $1599 AR MAP)
• EOS 5D Mark III with EF 24-105L IS Kit for $3199 AR Street Price (vs. $3699 AR MAP)
• EOS 6D with 24-105mm Kit for $1939 AR Street Price (vs. $2199 AR MAP)

• EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS USM II for $1899 AR Street Price (vs. $2049 AR MAP)
• EF 24-70mm f/2.8L II USM for $1749 AR Street Price (vs. $1949 AR MAP)
• EF 70-200mm f/4L IS USM for $989 AR Street Price (vs. $1099 AR MAP)
• EF 16-35mm f/4L IS USM for $1049 AR Street Price (vs. $1099 AR MAP)
• See all the street prices…

We know many readers have been waiting for these rebates, as they would be the best possible deals of the season. They are finally here! There will likely be a large backlog of street price inquiries, so please bear with us and have patience as we work through them all!

This is the last in a series of Canon holiday price prediction posts. In Part 1 and its follow-up we covered some price predictions from authorized Canon dealers. In Part 2 we went over unauthorized dealer (e.g. eBay) price predictions. Finally, in this post we’re covering refurbished store prices.

We also have instructions on how to claim a free $30 Canon eCash credit (no purchase necessary), at the end of the post!

The Predictions

Well, these aren’t exactly predictions because we’ve been told (thanks!) a list of some of the things to expect from Canon over the next couple of weeks.

• A tiered refurbished sale for Thanksgiving week.
  Up to 10% off: $100 off $1000, $50 off $500. Not nearly as good as 15% or 20% off, but maybe we’ll see that come later?

• EOS 6D for 10% off.
  Yet to be seen if this stacks with the tiered discount, but not a great deal as the final price (including sales tax, which the Canon store charges to most states) will likely end up a bit higher than our street price.

• 25%-35% Off Rebels, 60D, and 70D.
  Also yet to be seen if this stacks with the tiered discount, but we’re told to expect really great blow-out prices on consumer bodies.

As usual, with any refurbished sale things will sell out quickly, so if you’d like to be e-mailed immediately when a sale starts, please set notifications from the refurbished stock tracker or from a item’s page on our site.

Free $30 Canon eCash

Now, on to the free stuff. It looks like Canon is just giving away $30 of Canon eCash, that can be used as a credit towards a purchase on the Canon Store. It’s fairly straight forward, just fill out a form on their site. (Ignore the rules and regulations on the right. There was supposed to be some flash-based game to play, but the form is a short-circuit to the reward phase.) You will be mailed an eCash voucher within a couple days. Hold on to this, you’ll need it during the refurbished sales!

In our part 1 post and its follow-up we covered some price predictions from authorized Canon dealers. As promised, this post covers predictions for unauthorized dealers, deals we expect to see during the Thanksgiving Week eBay Frenzy, or subsequent frenzies rounding out the rest of the year.

Buying a physically identical import model from an unauthorized dealer via eBay is very safe and effective way to save money, as long as you rely on eBay feedback (or, our word!) to direct you to reputable dealers who have a history of reliably selling brand new Canon items at a great price. We’ll write more about why you can trust these dealers in a forthcoming post. (If the idea of buying from an unauthorized dealer still doesn’t appeal to you, consider our authorized dealer street prices.)

One important thing to note is these deals will go fast, really fast, if last year is any indication. For example, eBay’s headline Black Friday deal last year was the 5D Mark III for $2445, which sold out (300 bodies) in 91 minutes. To stand a chance you should sign up for a notification for the specific item, and we’ll e-mail you the second we see a great deal start.

The Predictions

Without further ado here are the unauthorized dealer deals that we predict to see sometime this year (with the biggest chance being during Thanksgiving Week or Cyber Week, on eBay). Again, these are predictions only based on historical data and current industry trends, please take them with a grain of salt.

• EOS 5D Mark III body-only for <$2400 (set notification)
  • What makes us predict this: Two years running, the headline Black Friday Deal was a 5D Mark III and we don’t expect this year to be any different. We saw $2445 last year and based on what we’ve seen with retailers testing the waters below $2500, we think sub-$2400 is definitely feasible on Black Friday.

• EOS 5D Mark III with 24-105mm f/4L IS for $2850, maybe (set notification)
  • What makes us predict this: We were totally shocked to see the 5D Mark III + 24-105mm for $2899 frenzy deal, causing us to dub it the “hottest 5D Mark III deal ever”, coming in $400 below authorized dealers and $180 below Black Friday 2013. The first deal sold out, but subsequent attempts at $2899 have been lackluster, leading us to predict that they’ll have to sweeten the deal. This is likely your best bet, as you can split the kit and sell the 24-105mm. That’s if they offer it at all — the last few attempts at selling this kit on eBay have been so quiet that retailers might not discount it and just split the kits themselves.

• EOS 6D body-only for $1300 (or slightly above) (set notification)
  • What makes us predict this: Recent EOS 6D deals have pegged this body at $1349 (import with WiFi & GPS). A price of $1299 breaks a psychological barrier that is sure to trigger buying, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we reach it during at some point this year.

• EOS 6D with 24-105mm Kit for $1800 (set notification)
• What makes us predict this: This item has been recently seen at $1849. If the body indeed drops to $1300 unauthorized, then $1799 may be in the cards for the kit.

How about other items? Unauthorized dealers have not been traditionally competitive on lenses, and the EOS 70D unauthorized dealer deals have been poor, especially in light of the $799 AR Adorama deal (still live) which is well below unauthorized dealer prices. We think it is also too early to see the 7D Mark II show up at any reasonable discount. But if the past has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen when it comes to Canon pricing. Just set a notification on the specific items you are interested in, and hope to get some great deals in your mailbox…

A few weeks ago, we published Part 1 of our holiday pricing predictions — we wrote down some predictions on authorized dealer pricing over the November/December holiday season. This post takes a look at how accurate we were, and updates some of the predictions to include what we think might be coming in the next and subsequent Canon rebate.

I know many readers are waiting for “Part 2” of our Holiday Predictions series, where we’ll predict some of the unauthorized dealer (eBay) prices for Black Friday and the following Cyber Week. This isn’t it, but don’t worry, that’s coming soon…

In Part 1 we predicted:

• Prediction #1: MAP is here to stay.
• Prediction #2: Small drop in lens prices (because of increased rebates).
• Prediction #3: Steady full-frame body price… for now (except for 1D-X)
• Prediction #4: Street prices will fluctuate directly with Canon rebates.

Well, how did we do with these predictions thus far, and do we have anything to change?

Read on to find out.

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