Black Friday is less than two weeks away! As usual, we’ll have around-the-clock coverage of Thanksgiving week + Cyber week. Here are a few predictions and guesses on deals we’ll see during the two biggest shopping weeks of the year, based on the pattern of Canon deals seen over the last few years.

As usual, be sure to use our notification system to get notified — you can choose to get e-mailed every time we make a post on our site (which is the most popular option), or e-mailed whenever an specific item drops below a price threshold that you specify.

Authorized Dealers

The current lens instant rebate suspiciously ends on November 21st, at the beginning of Thanksgiving week. We’re expecting the lens rebate to be renewed, with likely a slight increase in rebate to a few of the most popular lenses (think 70-200 II and 24-70 II). As the street prices for those lenses are extremely low already, this could result in some of the lowest street prices seen yet. We may also be coming up to the first rebate on the 100-400 II or 11-24L, but those lenses have still been selling well (100-400 II street price: $1999) and Canon may not see a reason to discount them yet.

We think there’s only a small chance of a price reduction for the EOS 5D Mark III and the 6D, but we may see them bundled with free extras (just like last year’s 6D + PRO-10 at B&H deal). We should see a good discount on the 7D Mark II, as the street price is still very high compared to bundle deals, grey market or refurbished prices. The 5Ds/5DsR is another candidate for a good price drop, but Canon may be hesitant, given the $300 price drop less than one month ago.

Unauthorized Dealers

Unauthorized dealers via eBay are a great way to get a holiday good deal (if you’re okay with not having a guaranteed Canon USA warranty.) We’re expecting to see import/grey market 5D Mark III at $1850, EOS 6D at $999, and 7D Mark II at $1050. We’re also expecting to see the grey market 5Ds/5DsR drop a tiny bit more (perhaps into the $2550/$2850 range.) We wrote this FAQ last year regarding eBay purchases, if you’d like more background info on buying cameras via eBay.

Refurbished from Canon Direct

Sadly, the Black Friday sale for Canon USA refurbished items (which come with a 1-year Canon USA warranty) likely already happened with the 15%-off sale and resulting 27%-off Price Mistake. That being said, you could likely expect to see 15% or perhaps even 20% savings during Thanksgiving Week or Cyber Week from the Canon Direct Store. The big challenge is inventory: it’s difficult to catch the item you want in-stock. Our refurbished stock tracker and notification system can really help here.

Everything Else

Thanksgiving week and Cyber week are usually the best time to get great deals on everything else photography related: memory cards, software, bags, etc. This year should be no exception, we’ll track all the deals here too!

The Canon Direct Store has the refurbished T5 with 18-55mm IS II Kit for $209, originally $399. This deal expires tomorrow. This is a great price point for an entry level camera.

Refurbished items come with a 1-year Canon USA warranty, however the Canon Direct Store does collect tax to most states.