CanonPriceWatch’s Holiday Predictions, Part 1: Authorized Dealers

Holidays are quickly approaching, and the most commonly asked question is: what will the prices be? We’re going to be writing a series of posts over the coming weeks with some Canon Holiday price predictions. In this first post, we’ll tackle some predictions on authorized dealer pricing. In future posts, we’ll write about predictions on import prices from unauthorized dealers, and also on refurbished prices. (If you still are confused about the differences, please read our article on the topic.)

Please take our predictions with a grain of salt. These are predictions only, and there are many factors that can cause the landscape to change over the next months (Canon itself is the major factor, and there are many factors outside of Canon’s control).

Continue reading to see our four price predictions regarding authorized dealers.

  • Prediction #1: MAP is here to stay.

    price-tagMany readers fondly look back on the deals from Holiday 2013 and wonder if we’ll ever see those authorized dealer prices again. You may still get good prices — but unfortunately, you won’t see them on stores’ websites. In April of this year, Canon introduced a restrictive minimum advertised price policy which restricts the price that authorized dealers can advertise at. They’ve been strictly enforcing it for six months, and we don’t expect it to be let up any time soon. You can still get a great price if you’re willing to do the legwork or if you use our street price program — more details on that later.

    History Lesson: Why was 2013 such a great year for Canon deals? Canon has always had a MAP, but it all unraveled on September 29th, 2013, when Best Buy (accidentally?) applied the mail-in rebates as instant rebates and set a price up to $300 below every other store (and below MAP) on popular items such as the 70-200 II and 24-70 II. Although they only held these prices for three days, the damage to MAP was done, and the next month was filled with “me too” double-dip sales from every other store. Due to the competition, by December, prices had spiraled down into the lowest prices of all time.

    This year, the rebates on September 28th came and went without any MAP-breaking. The next rebate period (probably starting October 26th) is likely to be the same. Sad to say, but thanks to MAP, this year seems to be devoid of the frenzied competition that can really help to drive prices down, and we expect it to stay that way.

  • Prediction #2: Small drop in lens prices (because of increased rebates).

    lots-of-lensesLooking at historic prices, current lens prices are still slightly above where think they will end up for Holiday 2014. We expect to see a small increase in the mail-in rebate amounts (perhaps $50) on the popular lenses. We also expect to see more lenses join the rebate list — several popular lenses were conspicuously missing from the September 28th rebate. Finally, and perhaps this is only wishful thinking, we predict a rebate on the new 16-35mm f/4L IS. All of these rebate changes can come as early as October 26th, the day after the current rebates end.

  • Prediction #3: Steady full-frame body prices… for now.

    IMG_240071There is growing downward price pressure (from imports) on EOS 5D Mark III and EOS 6D, but sales of these two bodies remain strong at the current price levels. We don’t expect any increase in the mail-in rebate in the near future. We think this may be re-evaluated in December depending on where the Holiday pricing from unauthorized dealers ends up (a topic for a future post). The EOS-1D X is under huge price pressure from unauthorized dealers — for months, import models were seen a full $2000 below MAP, and $1200 below street price — and we expect Canon will rectify this imbalance soon. Also, given our current view of supply and demand, we predict that we’ll have a street price on the brand new 7D Mark II before the end of the year.

  • Prediction #4: Street prices will fluctuate directly with Canon rebates.

    Because our street prices are from authorized Canon dealers, you are eligible for all Canon mail-in rebates. So if our predictions hold true, and lens rebates increase slightly in a coming rebate period, our after-rebate street prices will drop accordingly. We don’t expect the pre-rebate price (the price that you pay to the store) to change significantly, over the coming months. Any price changes from now until the end of the year are likely directly resulting from Canon mail-in rebates or instant rebates.

Questions? Ask them below, and we’ll try to answer. Please stay tuned for future posts on unauthorized dealer price and refurbished price predictions!



34 comments on “CanonPriceWatch’s Holiday Predictions, Part 1: Authorized Dealers

  1. October 23, 2014 at 1:39 am EDT

    Still waiting for their 20% refurbished sales… 5d mark iii 😀

  2. Jack
    October 23, 2014 at 8:34 am EDT

    Thanks for the info. I feel like Canon (and all manufacturers who use strict MAP policies) are ultimately shooting themselves in the foot trying to keep prices artificially high. One of the things that kept me buying Canon was the fact that their holiday sales were better than most, but it appears those days are over.

  3. Tom
    October 23, 2014 at 10:45 am EDT

    You said: “The EOS-1D X is under huge price pressure from unauthorized dealers — for months, import models were seen a full $2000 below MAP, and $1200 below street price — and we expect Canon will rectify this imbalance soon.”

    What is it that you think Canon is going to do to rectify this imbalance?

    I still thinking about 1Dx, but would prefer to wait for the new model that now seems like early next year. Hoping it gets a better sensor and latest Processor chips, maybe built in GPS. Really hoping for the new sensor with better noise.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      October 23, 2014 at 11:18 am EDT

      The most likely action is a price drop or rebate on the 1D X, I’d expect the authorized dealer USA price should trend to only a few hundred dollars above the import price.

  4. Henry Huff
    October 23, 2014 at 1:06 pm EDT

    thanks for the predictions and all of your usual sleuthing. my first thought is more of a comment. i’m surprised that external pressure from competitors has not put the heat on canon to do more now to keep current customers in lieu of any groundbreaking advances at the trade shows. sony is offering very deep incentives at the moment and while one could arguably say that the compact full frame is not necessarily a direct threat to the full frame dslr as we know it ( perhaps more threatened is the micro 4/3rds), i believe there are a number of people who are making that transition for the purposes of portability and scale without losing full frame functionality. meanwhile, with nikon offerings of late -this time seemingly without a glitch – both nikon and sony are certainly more attractive to new buyers at the moment and by the looks of the current used market, there does seem to be an uptick in canon users moving on to one of these systems. this is all anecdotal, finger in the wind stuff. for what it’s worth, i’d rather canon operate conservatively and get their tech right than hit us with stuff that isn’t ready for market but the recent red herring ad campaign and the seeming arrogance of canon’s top brass (at least if one read’s dpreview’s recent interview as indicative) suggests that canon is, in fact, not moving fast enough. when all of this is combined with the rigidity of the MAP program, i can’t help but feel that it really hurts consumer goodwill even among the most loyal and patient of us. there are only a handfull of retailers who could get away with disrupting MAP again this season. Fingers crossed.

    Now for the question, and please take this as a gentle and sincere query: does your involvement in the street price program ( i don’t know how / if you benefit) affect your ability to be objective with your holiday season predictions at all? Thanks!

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      October 23, 2014 at 7:08 pm EDT

      Good comments regarding Canon MAP and the loss of consumer goodwill.

      Regarding your question: the primary mission of this site is to find the best deals for the Canon community, and that’s what we’ve always cared about. (We do get compensated for our efforts by advertisers and retailers, but we spend a lot of time and effort here and it’s hardly worth it…)

      We try our very best to be objective and advocate for our readers regardless of any association. For example, we’re one of the few sites that accurately tries to educate on authorized vs. unauthorized, and we won’t hesitate to call out merchants who behave badly.

      Our predictions are based on our honest opinion and best guess of the Canon marketplace at this time. We’ve been tracking Canon prices for 4 years now, this has started to become some sort of fascinatingly odd compulsion / obsession 🙂

      We too would much rather see MAP be broken. First, we’d likely see lower prices, and second, street prices is a lot more work than just posting good deals from authorized dealers. But, before this happens (if it ever happens?), we see street prices as the best way currently to get a deal.

      1. John
        October 23, 2014 at 9:08 pm EDT

        What are the chances of Canon being bothered by the whole “street price” thing and somehow policing that?

        1. CanonPriceWatch
          October 23, 2014 at 9:14 pm EDT

          The chance is non-zero. One day…

      2. henry huff
        October 27, 2014 at 10:08 pm EDT

        thanks for your reply, buddy. i agree that you guys / guy (?) have done a really good job seaparating the wheat from the chaff without entiorely demonizing ‘unofficial’ sellers either. thanks for that. i think it takes a lot of the fear out of alternative buying solutions for consumers.

        any possibility of street prices on 3rd party lenses? how about special request canon lenses that meet a minimum cost but are less ‘hot’?

  5. Leo
    October 23, 2014 at 6:44 pm EDT

    Any idea when we’ll know if Canon will immediately follow up this round of rebates with another one (starting 26th)? I’m trying to time a purchase and not sure if I should just buy it now before these rebates end or just wait a bit. I’d need to buy before mid-November though.

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      October 23, 2014 at 6:55 pm EDT

      That would be my guess. What are you looking to buy?

      1. Leo
        October 23, 2014 at 8:14 pm EDT

        Prob 24-70ii. I have some B&H gift cards I need to use by mid-Nov.

        1. CanonPriceWatch
          October 23, 2014 at 8:16 pm EDT

          I think the rebate will be extended on this one (if not increased). Our street price is $1799 with the current $100 MIR.

  6. JHwsfla
    October 23, 2014 at 8:48 pm EDT

    Will the 1.4 and 2x Extenders show up on street prices

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      October 23, 2014 at 9:17 pm EDT

      Likely not, sorry. There just isn’t any room for a significant discount on lower priced items.

  7. s
    October 23, 2014 at 10:36 pm EDT

    Ive seen this 6D/24-105L combo for $1850. If you sell the new 24-105 for $600 , that effectively leaves the 6D body for 1250. that’s the lowest ive seen for the (n) model. Do you think we will see a 6D body only for that price this holiday? Ive never dealt with BVI. I have seen that it just might be a reboxed new 6D. but not factory sealed, but may include a usa warranty. Could it be that the 6DII is near also?

  8. October 24, 2014 at 4:24 am EDT

    I am getting a fast 35mm prime for Christmas (it’s my birthday, too). Do you think we will see the 35mm f/1.4L below $1200 with NY tax this year? Otherwise, I will probably go for Sigma Art, as much as I want an L lens…

    1. CanonPriceWatch
      October 24, 2014 at 9:50 am EDT

      I think we’ll see below $1200 without NY tax, but NY tax is pretty big…

      1. tankhimo
        October 24, 2014 at 9:57 am EDT

        Nobody outside of NYC participates in the street price program? Does the current $1229 street price only come with NY tax?

        1. CanonPriceWatch
          October 24, 2014 at 9:58 am EDT

          We have a couple retailers outside NY, but their selection and pricing isn’t as good. The current $1229 price comes with NY tax.

      2. tankhimo
        October 24, 2014 at 10:07 am EDT

        That kills it for me. Is it possible to avoid NY tax by shipping to NJ?

        1. CanonPriceWatch
          October 24, 2014 at 10:07 am EDT

          Yes.

        2. Emanuil
          October 24, 2014 at 10:24 am EDT

          you can also try the Camera Canada. Sometimes they have great prices, favorable exchange rate and you avoid the tax as well

        3. tankhimo
          October 24, 2014 at 11:37 am EDT

          But no US rebates…

        4. Emanuil
          October 24, 2014 at 3:28 pm EDT

          Agree on the US rebates. However if you get lucky with the timing you can get a really good deal from Camera Canada.
          Earlier this year in March/April as part of the CP Group Buy I got a 70-200 f4 IS for only $820 USD from Camera Canada (shipping included). This lens currently sells in US for 1150 USD after the $150 mail-in reabate.
          Both the group buy and the exchange rate made that great deal possible.

  9. Emanuil
    October 24, 2014 at 3:40 pm EDT

    CP this is a great article and attempt to predict where the prices will go. I got lucky with the timing and invested last season quite a bit in Canon equipment – 6D ($1,420 from B&H after all the included goodies were distounted) and four L lenses. You have saved me probably well over 2.5K. A BIG THANK YOU GUYS!!!

    One suggestion – it will be cool, if you have time in Jan/Feb 2015 to look back and see how accurate your predicitons were.

  10. terminatorii
    October 27, 2014 at 2:16 am EDT

    I am surprised that Nikon’s D750 does not affect Canon’s price on 5D III. I feel that 5D III was priced artificially high when it was released and it is still so today. Side by side comparison, I would not want to pay more than $2k for a 5D III today. Nikon is moving much faster in the past few years. Probably it is time to switch the camp…

  11. s
    November 4, 2014 at 5:14 pm EDT

    Hopefully in Predictions partII: 6d for $1200 , 5DIII for $1999..come on canoonnnnnn

  12. November 12, 2014 at 8:08 pm EDT

    Is there a chance that 70D prices would reduce? I am planning to get one before my trip in the first week of December

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